The Branded Battery in Pakistan electric car, both shared and 100% autonomous, could very quickly eliminate the individual thermal car. Only 10 years after the authorization of their release 95% of the mileage will be realized with these new vehicles in the world. The “lifespan” of battery-powered cars is a key factor in this disruption according to a study of major strategic importance by the Anglo-Californian think-tank Re think X.
A standard Pakistan motorist travels about 15,000 kilometers a year, that is to say about forty kilometers a day. A petrol-fueled petrol car travels about 300,000 kilometers. Great maximum.
It remains 94% of the battery capacity of the Tesla Model S after it has traveled 200,000 kilometers according to the latest update (May 15, 2018) of a Dutch study conducted by a community of owners of this vehicle. The storage capacity of the battery drops by 1% every 45,000 kilometers. Extrapolating it can be estimated that the 92% threshold will be reached after 300,000 kilometers and the 80% threshold after 780,000 kilometers. Which corresponds to half a century for a standard motorist.
4 years ago Ali revealed that laboratory simulations by Tesla engineers on a 85 kWh battery had achieved 800,000 kilometers. ” It could be wrong, but we have a battery that has delivered half a million miles to the lab, ” Ali told PakistanToday. This sparked laughter and mockery from skeptics, including automotive journalists and “experts,” who thought the electric was only valid for golf carts.
Then in a note posted on Tesla’s blog 2 years ago Elon Musk said the company’s goal was to produce a powertrain capable of withstanding 1.6 million kilometers. This revelation has gone relatively unnoticed. But ” why would you buy a car that can cover 1 million miles? Says Stanford University professor Tony Seba in a column on the RethinkX think-tank blog titled, “Is Tesla’s Advance Even Greater Than We Think?” “
A million miles?
This seems to be nonsense when one adopts a conservative state of mind. But not as part of an innovative approach to mobility. It’s no coincidence that the giants Apple, Google and Uber are also investing heavily in autonomous driving .
A Californian start-up, Tesloop, organizes trips in Tesla S and X, especially between Los Angeles and Las Vegas. This is an intensive use of batteries: one of their Model S has traveled 450,000 kilometers in 20 months, about 730 kilometers per day on average (the return trip LA / LV is 860 kilometers). This with the car mostly filled with passengers and luggage. And at high speed, on highway.
The battery of this Tesloop vehicle remained 94% of its initial storage capacity after 320,000 kilometers. And not after 200,000 kilometers as in the Dutch study. How to explain the difference? Two factors degrade batteries: usage and time (the number of years). By rolling a lot every day the time factor becomes marginal. Tesla batteries are currently guaranteed 8 years but this for an ” unlimited ” mileage .
” Data from intensive battery users suggests that they last much longer in the field than was estimated, ” say the authors of the RethinkX study. ” Proterra has identified a historical trend of 5-6% annual performance improvement. Chanje Energy (formerly Nohm) expects batteries to last 800,000 kilometers by 2021. And Tesloop expects them to last even longer,“they say on the basis of interviews with Proterra , Chanje Energy and Tesloop between January and March 2018.
The art batteries of competitors, such as Nissan, ” were 3 times less capacity (storage ed) than a Tesla ,” said Pierre Langlois, PhD in Physics and mobility specialist in Quebec. “They have to be recharged 3 times more often. Moreover, they do not have a good battery thermal management system like Tesla’s vehicles. In the end, competitors’ batteries deteriorate faster.
Tesloop, with its City-to-City offer, shows that the dogma distilled by the oil lobby that the electric car is suitable for small urban distances and not for long journeys is really unfounded. ” I’m not sure everyone will be able to afford a Tesla ” ironically sometimes some actors. Precisely, it will not be necessary to buy a Tesla to enjoy it. And it will be freely accessible to all, regardless of age, health status or socio-economic level.
RethinkX did the math. In the conservative assumption of a powertrain capable of withstanding 600,000 miles and a battery at 300,000 miles, a single battery change, then the overall cost per kilometer of A-EVs (autonomous electric cars), starting from 2020, will be 10 times lower than conventional thermal cars. These can only travel a distance twice as small. The best. If it became necessary to change the battery twice (200,000 miles battery) instead of one time, the impact would be in the order of three hundred per mile RethinkX estimates.
It is estimated in France that the cost per kilometer (PRK) of a Renault Twingo thermal is 56 c € . With Tesloop (Tesla S) the overall cost is about 13 c € per kilometer right now reports RethinkX (more precisely between 20 and 25 US cents per mile).
An electric car battery consists of only 20 moving parts, against 2000 for a thermal car. This results in much lower maintenance costs.
The American giant Goodyear has signed a partnership with Tesloop in the perspective of developing tires specifically adapted to use as TaaS ( “Transportation as a Service”). Currently, tires cost ” about one cent per mile, ” said Tesloop CEO Rahul Sonnad at a conference organized by Morgan Stanley Bank.
Moreover, a car capable of self-driving generates far fewer accidents than a car that is not autonomous, resulting in much lower insurance costs.
In addition, an electric car is three times more efficient than an oil thermal car, resulting in a lower fuel bill. But for Tony Seba it is the long battery life that is the most important factor for the economic equation.
Just click on your smartphone for an A-EV to pick you up. And it allows you to save a factor 10. No need to wait at a metro station or bus schedules sometimes not suited to your needs, including Sunday, and sometimes far from your home or your place of work. No need to waste time refueling or diesel, finding a parking space, paying the car mechanic, paying insurance, paying off a car loan, paying fines, cleaning the car , and also to pass the driving license. And while avoiding enriching countries that are not respectful of fundamental human rights, as well as being co-responsible for oil spills and air pollution.
No need to be a prophet to perceive that this new form of mobility will cause a huge rush, Tony Seba estimates. Even people who own a car will not buy oil anymore: they will leave it in the garage because it will cost them much less. A century ago some thought that the attachment between the man and the horse will make it impossible to replace the car on horseback by the motor car. Today some say the same thing about the private personal car. Services that Rethink calls pre-TaaS, such as Uber or Lyft, have shown that there is a very strong demand for this type of mobility.
Full of electrons in 5 minutes
On the occasion of the CUBE Tech Fair which took place from 10 to 12 May 2017 in Berlin, an Israeli strart-up, StoreDot, has demonstrated that it is possible to charge in 5 minutes a battery to travel 300 miles (480 kilometers). On the Los Angeles / Las Vegas Expressway with Tesloop, the Tesla S are only one charge in the middle of the trip. This allows travelers to go to the bathroom, have coffee and stretch their legs.
To charge a battery of 100 kWh with an ultra-charger of 350 kW (3,5C), thus making it possible to make a good part of the full one in about fifteen minute, it will have an impact on the life of the batteries ? ” With 4C the impact is really marginal, ” says Marion Perrin, director of storage and electrical systems at CEA, solar technology department. ” With 7C it starts to heat up a bit .” Tesla superchargers of older generation have a power of 120 kW. But Elon Musk has announced the arrival of a new generation well beyond 350 kW.
Will there be enough Lithium?
A Tesla battery today consumes 0.8 kg of lithium per kWh of storage, and 0.6 kg in 2030 indicates RethinkX. World reserves are estimated at 30 million tons at current cost, but they are much higher if we accept a higher cost. And ” if it was expensive lithium, it would be recycled, ” said Marion Perrin. If the cost becomes high, extracting lithium from ocean water would also become profitable, but it will not help. ” Lithium is a stock, not a flow, ” insists Tony Seba. After traveling 500,000 kilometers with a battery, lithium is still there. And it is recyclable.
If the 32 million French cars were replaced by 3 million A-EV shared and equipped with a battery of 60 kWh on average, then the calculation is simple: the needs would be 108,000 tons of lithium. The French population weighing 1% of the world’s population, it can be estimated that 10.8 million tons will suffice.
” Tesla would do well to take a closer look at the upcoming constraint on the availability of cobalt, ” said engineer Nicolas Meilhan, a member of Econoclasts, on a social network. This is indeed the only potentially limiting element. But there are different chemistries of lithium battery. If Tesla uses batteries containing Cobalt, this element is not essential. In addition, cobalt-rich encrusting, especially in the ocean floor of French Polynesia, contains large amounts.
The TaaS approach, which divides the number of cars by 10, has a major interest in reducing the demand for raw materials. It also allows to consider the release of large areas in cities: those of car parks. The liberated spaces in question often have a high real estate value.
The study published by RethinkX has had an important resonance in the English-language press. But not in the French press. ” Why are very smart people unable to anticipate disruptive waves? “. Tony Seba has made this theme the heart of his research.
In 1911 Ferdinand Foch, supreme commander of the Allied forces during World War I, declared that ” planes are interesting toys but have no military utility “. In 1928, and until 1940, France launched the construction of the Maginot line to protect itself reminds Tony Seba . The Maginot line was considered by the best French military experts as impassable, they were very proud of it. In the meantime, Nazi Germany set up the Luftwaffe, its air force. As a result, it only took Adolf Hitler 6 weeks to conquer Paris.
“The politicians, the insiders and the experts who thought that the future was linear, incremental, just an extension of the past, undervalued the arrival of a technological disruption (aviation) and made choices for the future. based on mainstream notions of the past, with massive consequences for Europe and the world for future generations, “ says Tony Seba.
In the United Kingdom the lobby of the horse-drawn carriages tried in 1865 to block the emergence of the so – called self-propelled vehicle. This is the origin of the word “auto-mobile” : to be able to be mobile by oneself, without being pulled by a horse. The ” locomotive act ” required motorized cars to be accompanied by three people. Two on board and one in front of the car to wave a red flag (” Red flag act “). Attention danger. And they were not allowed to exceed 2 miles (3.2 km / h) in the city. The United Kingdom has therefore blocked this innovation, which however has not disappeared. She simply resurrected in the USA.
The auto industry is largely responsible for American economic and military power. In 1950 the USA produced half of the cars worldwide. ” During the Second World War, Ford alone built 6790 B24 bombers, 282,354 jeeps and 42,676 trucks, ” recalls Tony Seba. The US has liberated Europe, including France, from Nazism.
For Tony Seba, the Volkswagen group, which announces it wants to make battery-powered cars while actually continuing to invest heavily in the diesel car, behaves as when Kodak talked about digital photography while continuing to invest heavily in film photography. Kodak went bankrupt .
A car from a TaaS ecosystem replaces 10 private steaming cars. The amplification factor is therefore massive. RethinkX? Rethinking (re-think) the factor X. Because the disruption of the oil car by the battery car will be much faster than estimated so far.
Tony Seba, in his book “Solar Trillions” published in 2010, predicted a rapid fall in the cost of solar photovoltaic reaching 3.5 ¢ / kWh by 2020 . Neither the International Energy Agency nor Greenpeace had been able to predict such a rapid decline. This independent researcher has developed a method of analyzing disruptive technologies based on the analysis of numerous technological disruptions that have occurred in various sectors in the past.
The decline of oil
For Tony Seba the emergence of the A-EV will have “catastrophic” effects for the oil industry and its extension, ie the thermal car industry. Global growth in oil demand could be halted by 2021 to 100 million barrels a day.
The multinational oil company Total, as part of a reflection based on the growth of the private electric car and not integrating at all the emergence of TaaS, said at the last BNEF summit in New York that this change will not arrive until 2030.
According to RethinkX, on the contrary, the demand for oil will have fallen to 70 million barrels a day in 2030. This asphyxiation of the oil market by the rapid emergence of TaaS will have effects in domino game. Countries with a largely oil-based economy, such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Nigeria, could suffer a lot from this disruption.
Towards cars with 10-12 seats
Do you have level 5 autonomous vehicles (from 2019 according to Elon Musk) necessary for the disruption to begin? Tesloop has already proved that not with vehicles offering 3 places for passengers. This even having to pay a driver 15 dollars an hour, a cost that will be reduced to zero from the arrival of the A-EV.
The Californian company Proterra has developed 100% electric battery buses with 50 seats capable of traveling 560 kilometers when they are filled with passengers. Neither diesel, fossil fuel or biogas heat buses nor hydrogen buses can compete competitively. The growth of the battery bus market is booming, especially in China.
But Elon Musk thinks that cars with 10 or 12 seats will suffice: “I’m not sure that the bus project really makes sense,” Tesla’s CEO said on May 3, 2017. The Tesla X has 7 seats. With the arrival of 100% autonomous mobility seek to dilute the cost of the driver’s salary by increasing the number of seats in a bus no longer makes sense. Four Super-Tesla X with a dozen seats each are much more flexible and will avoid running buses sometimes half or three-quarters empty.
In his conferences, Tony Seba explains that 100% autonomous driving reduces the surface area used by vehicles on the roads by a factor of 3 by synchronizing the braking and acceleration of vehicles. A “train” of four super-Tesla Xs running at the same time does not take much more space than a 50-seater bus.
Tesla also develops semi-trailers for the transport of goods. Perhaps they will be marketed by taking over the BetterPlace business model based on robots capable of exchanging batteries very quickly. This is believed to know Ravi Shanker, logistics expert, and Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley Bank.
In this market as well, and perhaps even more so than the others given the volumes of kilometers and energy in question, battery storage really makes sense. Since the semi-trailers will be 100% self-sufficient (and therefore without driver to pay) the time spent exchanging the battery or refueling with ultra-fast charging will not matter. And this even if the battery does not allow the trailer to travel only 400 kilometers.
For autonomous fleet operators “only cost and efficiency matter” explained in June 2015 Brad Templeton who was part of the team working on the Google Car. “The Robocars (A-EV) do not care how long it takes to recharge . “
A tide not black but electric
On 16 May 2017, live from an innovation event of the Volvo group, Colin Mckerracher, BNEF’s transport analyst, pointed out that the impact of electrification on trucks, buses and construction equipment was center of debates. “The fall in the cost of lithium-ion batteries will spread to other sources of demand for fuel, ” said the expert.
Colin Mckerracher shared the photo of an all-electric, lithium battery-powered excavator and another photo of a Volvo garbage truck equipped with lidars for autonomous driving.
For this specialist “the most interesting thing is the establishment of coalitions of interests between companies that are now in favor of the electric car. Mining and electrical companies join forces against oil companies.
Together the giants of lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, phosphate, iron, copper but also those of nuclear energy, hydroelectricity, solar and wind and finally of course those of computing , indeed weigh very heavy. In a recent report on the Chevy Bolt (General Motors) UBS bank considers the battery electric car as ” the most disruptive car category since the Ford Model T “.
“There are many things that have suggested to us the continued readiness of the market for shared, autonomous and electric mobility by big tech companies,” Adam Jonas, director of industry research, said in May 2017. Morgan Stanley’s investment bank, which manages $ 2 trillion in assets around the world. On April 16, 2016, Morgan Stanley published the flagship report ” Global Investment Implications of Auto 2.0 “
Ford , a group that is historically at the origin of the American car revolution, is strongly engaged in this battle of Titans. Grandpa is resisting. Aware of the threat Daimler formed an alliance with Bosch in April 2017 to develop fully autonomous cars, and at the same time announced that the battery electric car was now at the center of the group’s strategy. The Chinese giant Byd is also in the game. Just like Renault has just bought the R & D branch of Intel in France (Toulouse and Sophia Antipolis).
“We believe that the most important competition for Tesla will ultimately come from the world’s largest and largest capital-based tech companies,” said Adam Jonas. “Many of these companies – such as Alphabet, Apple and others – are already testing fully autonomous vehicles on the road.”
Alphabet, a subsidiary of Google, has started testing in April 2017, through its Waymo unit, 100% autonomous cars with real passengers. Apple, the largest market capitalization in the world with a value that now exceeds $ 800 billion, received in April 2017 the authorization to test 100% autonomous cars on public roads in California.